УДК 336.37

МОНЕТАРНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОГО БАНКА: ЦЕЛИ И МЕТОДЫ

Тереков Иван Дмитриевич
Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации
студент

Аннотация
В данной статье описываются основы цели монетарной политики Банка России в 2015 году и на период 2016-2017гг, а также характерны для их достижения проблемы, связанные с использованием режима таргетирования инфляции.

Ключевые слова: инструменты денежно-кредитного регулирования, ключевая ставка, монетарная политика, сentral bank, ставки денежного рынка, Центральный Банк


MONETARY POLICY OF THE CENTRAL BANK: GOALS AND METHODS

Terekov Ivan Dmitrievich
Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation
student

Abstract
The article describes the main objectives of monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2015 and for 2016-2017, characterized by the problems of the use of inflation targeting regime.

Keywords: inflation targeting, instruments of monetary regulation, key rate, monetary policy, money market rates


Библиографическая ссылка на статью:
Тереков И.Д. Monetary policy of the central bank: goals and methods // Экономика и менеджмент инновационных технологий. 2015. № 9 [Электронный ресурс]. URL: http://ekonomika.snauka.ru/2015/09/9695 (дата обращения: 30.09.2017).

Научный руководитель:

Басс Александр Борисович,

Кандидат экономических наук, доцент, доцент кафедры «Денежно-кредитные отношения и монетарная политика»

Monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, is an essential part of government economic policy, the main strategic goal of which is improving the welfare of population and employment. Based on this long-term strategy, the main targets of macroeconomic policy of the government is to sustain the growth of the Gross Domestic Product and inflation.

Monetary policy includes the definition of the ultimate goals in the monetary sphere, operational goals, and tools, by which operational goals can be monitored.
In the “Basic directions of a uniform monetary policy for 2015 and for 2016-2017” Central Bank of the Russian Federation emphasizes that “the main purpose of the unified state monetary policy is price stability, which means the achievement and maintenance of sustainable low inflation. Price stability is necessary for improving or maintaining at a high level well-being of Russian citizens, which is the ultimate goal of state economic policy”. [1]

The goal of monetary policy is to reduce inflation to 4% in 2017 and further maintaining close to a specified level. A continuing goal is set taking into account the structural features of the Russian economy and the dynamics of inflation in trade partner countries of Russia and is achievable on a three-year horizon. The Bank of Russia as of 2015 conducts monetary policy within the inflation targeting regime, it is emphasized that “the policy of inflation targeting contributes to the sustainability of economic growth and to maintain a high level of employment”.

The inflation targeting regime implies reaching a certain value of inflation as a goal of monetary policy, which ensures long-term stability of prices in the economy. It should be noted that the most important characteristic of inflation targeting is the freedom of the Bank of Russia in the choice of the set of instruments of monetary regulation and mechanisms of their application.

Inflation targeting as an alternative monetary targeting regime has appeared in practice of Central banks in the late 80-ies and currently is used in more than 30 countries.

The main characteristics of inflation targeting include:
- stable and low inflation, which in the long term is defined as the most important task of monetary policy in the countries applying inflation targeting;
- the Central Bank independently sets the value of the interest rate or the monetary-policy instrument, which they use in the practice of targeting.

In addition, monetary authorities should refrain from targeting the level or dynamics of other indicators, such as nominal exchange rate.

These requirements are considered largely sufficient to ensure that the country could carry out monetary policies consistent with the principle of inflation targeting. The implementation of monetary policy must contain the following elements: priority to achieve the inflation target; the construction of appropriate macroeconomic model of the economy; the use of certain techniques for responding to emerging inflation and inflationary expectation.

The Bank of Russia implements its monetary policy through control of interest rates. While striving to limit its intervention in market pricing mechanisms, the Central Bank directly affects only the most short-segment – one-day money market rates, in order to bring them to the key rate. [2]

Carrying out operations with credit institutions, Bank of Russia directly affects only the most short-term rates of the market, seeking to bring them closer to the key rate. It is considered that this impact should be enough to change the key rate’s effect on interest rates on loans and deposits of banks, which affect decisions on consumption, saving and investment and, consequently, on economic activity and inflation. Other interest rates in the economy, including interest rates on bank loans and deposits, bond yield rates and other financial markets are determined by market mechanisms, but a strong influence on their dynamics  have changes in the level of money market rates.

The Bank of Russia sets the key rate in such a way as to ensure the achievement of the inflation target in the medium term. This approach is explained by the fact that monetary policy affects the economy not immediately, but gradually, over time. In this regard, when making decisions about the level of the key rate used in the forecast of development of economy, unforeseen factors may cause significant fluctuations in inflation and deviations of inflation from the target level.

There is a risk of being too hasty in transition to inflation targeting in countries, when monetary authorities can quickly start to lose control over inflation. Exceeding the target level of inflation creates additional inflationary expectations in the future and the potential for recession in the economy.

The high level of annual inflation is primarily driven by short-term factors: the weakening of the ruble in late 2014 or January 2015 and trade restrictions. However in March-April monthly growth rate of consumer prices fell, estimated on average to 1.0%, after 3.1% in January—February, there have been signs of stabilization in annual inflation. [3]

A restraining influence on prices exerted downward pressure on consumer demand in the face of declining real income and observed in recent months strengthening of the ruble, which shows a decline in inflation expectations of the population. The dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators show a significant decline of GDP in the first and second quarters of 2015. Although structural factors continue to exert a restraining influence on economic growth, a reduction in the output currently largely cyclical in nature. This brings forth evidence, including the observed decrease of capacity utilization, labor force and increasing unemployment.
It is important to note that the actions of the Bank of Russia in inflation targeting can be complicated in the current economic environment. In March 2015, the Bank of Russia lowered its key interest rate to 14% (from 05.05.2015 (12.5%), significantly downgraded its economic forecast. In the second half of 2014 and in early 2015, the inflation rate was mostly influenced by the devaluation of the ruble and the food sanctions. According to calculations by the Bank of Russia (data on 11.12.2014) of 10% inflation devaluation accounts for 2.6 and sanctions on food 2.3 percentage points. [3] Governors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation considered that the impact of devaluation on inflation is limited in time and may largely be exhausted in the second half of 2015.

If the Central Bank announces an increase in interest rates as rising prices, caused by the fall in the exchange rate, then adverse price and exchange rate expectations would be added to the same unfavorable interest rate expectations, which may lead to the termination of investment activity. [4]
Inflation can be called as excess demand and rising costs. In recent years in the domestic economy unit costs increased as a result of growth of prices and tariffs of natural monopolies, more rapid growth of wages (relative to productivity), falls in the exchange rate. Tight monetary policy may slow down the rate of inflation, limiting the excess demand, if it occurs, while methods of monetary policy cannot help to overcome non-monetary factors of inflation.


References
  1. Osnovnyie napravleniya edinoy denezhno-kreditnoy politiki na 2015g. i period 2016-2017g. – http://www.cbr.ru/
  2. Bank Rossii pered vyizovom denezhno-kreditnoy po¬litiki. – www liberal.ru. 17.12 2014.
  3. Zayavlenie Predsedatelya Banka Rossii E. Nabiullinoy po itogam zasedaniya Soveta direktorov 13 marta 2015 g. – http://www.cbr.ru
  4. Bukina I.S., Manevich V.E. «O nauchnyih osnovah denezhno-kreditnoy politiki». Biznes i Banki, 2015. 4.


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